Performance forecasting is thought to be something of a black art, involving difficult math and a huge dose of guesswork. That can be true. But there are also meaningful models to project a system’s future performance, scalability, and capacity based on measurements of current behavior. This talk shows two sets of real data from two different real systems. One is clean and precise, gathered in a laboratory setting. Another is chaotic, gathered from a real system under the heaviest load it had ever experienced. With a little experience, both data sets yield meaningful projections of system capacity under heavier-than-measured load. This talk will focus on system capacity (throughput). You’ll see how to gather data from your own systems and apply the same method to forecast their peak capacity.
Despite the depth of the subject, this talk is suitable for intermediate-level attendees. The underlying math is complex, but the method is easy to apply.
Baron Schwartz is the Chief Performance Architect at Percona. He is the lead author of High Performance MySQL, and creator of Maatkit.
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